Polls Show Conservative Momentum, Continued Volatility

TORONTO, August 24 — Polls suggest the Conservatives have gained momentum as the polls draw near, but with an unusually high number of undecided voters, the election is still too close to call.

National numbers put the Conservatives in the lead with 33.6% of decided voters, followed by the Liberals at 26.9%, the NDP at 21.7%, the Greens at 10.1% and the Bloc Quebecois at 7.71%. The Bloc Quebecois continue to lead in Quebec with 32.4% of decided voters, followed by 25.2% for the Conservatives and 22.7% for the Liberals. The NDP and the Greens round out the list at 12.7% and 6.9% respectively.

The Conservatives are continuing their free-fall in Atlantic Canada, taking only 13.9% of the vote compared to the Liberals 49.2%, the NDP’s 23.9% and the Greens’ 13.1%. These fortunes are mirrored in Alberta where the Liberals find themselves at 12.6%, marginally ahead of the Greens at 12.1%. The Conservatives lead that province with 52.1% of decided voters with the NDP in second place at 23.2%.

The best news for the Conservatives comes in the battleground province of Ontario, where they have widened their lead to ten points. The Conservatives are now polling at 39%, compared to the Liberals 29.8%, the NDPs’ 21.1% and the Greens’ 10.1%. On the other hand, the NDP have widened their lead in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, polling at 35% compared to the Conservatives 30% and the Liberals’ 24%. A Tight race remains in British Columbia, where Green support has dropped, but no clear winner has emerged.

“The numbers are definitely polling the Conservatives’ way, outside of the Atlantic provinces,” says pollster Allen Reid. “If trends continue, they stand a good chance of increasing their seat totals, although they are nowhere near majority territory.”

Reid cautions, however, that the high number of undecided votes could lead to surprises on election night. “Forty percent of respondents have not decided. They could stay at home, or they could make their decision at the ballot box. If they all track one way, it could render all of our best polls completely obsolete.”

These numbers are considered accurate to within three percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

      Atlantic   Quebec   Ontario   Man/Sask  Alberta      BC     National
CON    13.85%    25.23%    39.01%    30.83%    52.11%    30.42%    33.63%
LIB    49.23%    22.69%    29.79%    24.17%    12.63%    26.67%    26.91%
NDP    23.85%    12.73%    21.13%    35.00%    23.16%    30.42%    21.68%
GRN    13.08%     6.94%    10.07%    10.00%    12.11%    12.50%    10.07%
BQ      0.00%    32.41%     0.00%    0.00%      0.00%     0.00%     7.71%

Sample   220       720      1200      200       300       400

About this Entry

This page contains a single entry by James Bow published on August 24, 2008 4:30 PM.

Party Support Shifts as Regions Polarize was the previous entry in this blog.

The Leader of the Bloc Quebecois, the Honourable Gilles Duceppe is the next entry in this blog.

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