Liberals, Conservatives Slip as Campaign Progresses

TORONTO, August 6 — The latest opinion polls, on the eve of the first of a critical round of debates, finally show some movement for the major parties. Unfortunately for them, it’s downward. The Liberal party dipped below 30% for the first time in this campaign, largely due to slips in support in Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta. The Conservatives held steady, with small gains in Alberta offsetting a drop in support in the Atlantic provinces.

Nationally, the Conservatives are still in the lead with 30.8% of decided voters, followed by the Liberals at 29.97%. The NDP are third, marginally higher at 21% of decided voters, followed by the Greens at 10.3$, and the Bloc Quebecois at 8.1%. In Quebec, the Bloc’s numbers translated to a lead of 35.7%, steady from last week, while the Conservatives and the Liberals rose slightly to 23.2% and 22% respectively.

“It has been a disciplined, tightly controlled campaign by all parties,” says pollster Allen Reid. “All the mainstream parties have stayed on message. In the absence of any gaffes, I think the advantage goes to the Conservative government, who are proving themselves to be far less frightening than the Liberals painted them in the past.”

Ontario numbers showed a tightening race, with Liberal support down marginally to 35.9% and Conservative support up marginally at 33.1%. The NDP continue to hold steady at 20.7%.

But again Reid cautioned that these numbers could prove illusionary. “The number of undecided voters is increasing in this election, ranging from 30% of respondents in Alberta to 40% in Quebec. People just haven’t made up their minds, or are frustrated with all of the alternatives.

The poll results are considered accurate within three percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

   Atlantic    Quebec    Ontario    Man/Sask    Alberta       BC      National

CON 20.69% 23.15% 33.10% 32.50% 47.62% 28.15% 30.76% LIB 48.28% 21.99% 35.86% 25.83% 19.05% 27.41% 29.97% NDP 22.07% 12.27% 20.69% 31.67% 22.38% 28.89% 20.93% GRN 8.97% 6.94% 10.34% 10.00% 10.95% 15.56% 10.25% BLQ 0.00% 35.65% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 8.10%

Sample 220 720 1200 200 300 400 3040

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This page contains a single entry by James Bow published on August 6, 2008 8:30 AM.

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